WHERE WILL THE MICHIGAN OFFENSE TAKE A STEP BACK IN 2024?

As we head into the summer months, there are still plenty of unknowns ahead of the 2024 season. One thing is certain though: the Michigan Wolverines will look a bit different this fall, especially on offense, having lost pieces like J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, much of the offensive line, and Jim Harbaugh. There is still plenty of talent in Ann Arbor, but 2024 will not be exactly the same as last season, at least when it comes to the gameplay itself.

We will use this space over the next few weeks to look at some areas that might fall off a bit, but also some places the Wolverines might actually see an improvement this year. We will start first with the offense and some metrics that could move down the ranks a bit with all of the changes to the personnel.

Interceptions

Michigan suffered just five picks last season, compared to 18 (!) by the defense, ranking fifth-best and third-best in the country, respectively. Four of those happened in the non-conference slate, including McCarthy’s inexplicable three-interception performance against Bowling Green. He would throw just one more pick over the entire season, getting bested by now-Wolverine Jaishawn Barham when at Maryland.

Whoever Michigan puts at quarterback is going to be a step down from McCarthy. The presumed favorite right now is Alex Orji, whose biggest flaw happens to be accuracy. McCarthy was extremely precise and very careful, and the transition to Orji might feel pretty jarring in this regard. Not too bold of a claim to expect the interception total to rise in 2024.

Fourth Downs

Last year, Michigan was one of the country’s best fourth-down teams, converting 17-of-22 attempts for a 77 percent conversion rate, a top-three figure. That mostly was thanks to Blake Corum, but Harbaugh and Sherrone Moore had tons of confidence in McCarthy making the right decision as well. This ability to keep the chains moving was imperative given the Wolverines’ preferred style of play, with long drives much more common than home runs.

While Kalel Mullings and Benjamin Hall should be effective in short-yardage situations and Orji is seemingly built for them as well, I would be surprised to see Michigan as dominant in this area in 2024. I think Moore will want to stay aggressive, but he is not Harbaugh. With much of the offensive line new to the starting lineup too, I see the offense taking a step back when it comes to fourth down, both in willingness to go for it and successful conversions.

Sack Prevention

I am a little surprised to see that Michigan was only tied for 37th in sacks allowed last season, suffering 20 on the year. Though this number is slightly inflated due to a couple extra games, McCarthy and company were not quite elite in this department. Of course, a sack is preferable to an unwise pass, but they do tend to kill drives for offenses like the Wolverines’.

If Orji is under center, he definitely will add a unique running element at the position. However, he comes into the fall with essentially no experience, and that could lead to situations where he tries to keep a play alive too long by trusting his legs and ultimately ending up getting sacked. I do not think this will be a major weakness for Michigan this year, but I bet the sack total does jump up.

Time of Possession

The Michigan offense was on the field for over 32 minutes a game last year, a top-20 number nationally. With an excellent run game and often overmatched opponents, it is no surprise that the Wolverines stayed in control and cruised through much of the season. While time of possession is not the only thing that matters, when paired with a top-15 scoring offense it certainly says something.

Perhaps this is related to some of the thoughts above, but I see Michigan regressing a bit here as well. Drives will stall out without Corum and the veteran offensive line, and though Orji might extend some possessions with his legs, he will likely give some away via turnovers as well. The offense might still end up scoring enough, but I think it will look and function a bit differently than the past couple seasons.

What do you think? Where will the offense take the biggest step back this season? Let us know in the comments below!

2024-06-15T15:31:34Z dg43tfdfdgfd