UCONN VS ILLINOIS PREDICTION, GAME PREVIEW: NCAA TOURNAMENT ELITE EIGHT, EAST REGION FINAL
Can anyone slow down the UConn machine? It ripped through everyone last year in its national championship run, and this season it’s making it look way too easy with a 30-point win over San Diego State to get here. Illinois is on its best run since losing the 2005 national championship.
UConn vs Illinois Basketball
Date: Saturday, March 30
Game Time: 6:09 pm ET
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
How To Watch: TBS
Record: UConn (34-3), Illinois (29-8)
NCAA Tournament Region: East
- 2024 NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Game Previews, Lines
Why Illinois Will Win
Terrence Shannon is 6-6. Coleman Hawkins is 6-10, Marcus Damask 6-6, Quincy Guerrier 6-7, Dan Dainja 6-9 …
The Illini have the size.
No one was tougher this season or scrapped harder than San Diego State, and it didn’t matter against UConn. The Huskies rolled 82-52, but the relatively tight battle turned into a blowout because of second chance after second chance.
UConn came up with 21 offensive rebounds, mostly because the Aztecs didn’t have enough overall size - the ball kept getting tipped and bipped, and eventually those plays turned into a ton of points.
UConn is more than just size and depth, but forget about it if you don’t have the raw bulk to hold up on the boards. Illinois might be mostly about its high-powered offense, but it helps to be seventh in the nation - and first in the Big Ten - in total rebounds.
Shannon is the best player in the tournament - yes, he’s better than Zach Edey - there’s no problem playing an up-and-down game, and this bunch doesn’t have a problem going on a run or three to overcome its defensive issues.
And yes, it’s a better free throw shooting team than it showed in the win over Iowa State.
Why UConn Will Win
Of course the unrelenting offense is the biggest piece of the puzzle.
UConn can score in any way possible. It can work to its size inside, make the extra pass to for the easy shot, hit the three, attack the basket, hit the deep three - you name it, this offense can do it.
But it’s the defense come tournament time that has made the last two teams so special. The Huskies haven’t allowed anyone to hit 40% from the field in six of their last seven and eight of their last ten games.
No one has been able to get to 40% from the field against the UConn D in any of the last nine NCAA Tournament games over the last two seasons.
Amazing against the three over those nine games, and great at cleaning up the boards when they force the miss, they apply unbearable pressure.
They nail at least half of their shots on one end, and find out what brand of gum everyone is chewing on the other.
You’re not allowed to make a mistake against UConn, but …
UConn vs Illinois: Who Will Win
Illinois has the exact right makeup pull this off.
Again, size isn’t a problem. It won’t be outrebounded by the Huskies - at least, it won’t be outrebounded by enough to matter.
The offense isn’t a problem. There’s more than enough pop to score in any way possible, just like UConn does.
What’s missing is the consistent defense. Illinois will apply pressure, but it doesn’t come up with takeaways, and there’s a problem when the shots don’t drop.
The team is 0-3 when it doesn’t get to 40% from the floor, and it’s 5-6 when it doesn’t get to 44%.
UConn won’t stuff the Illinois attack, but it’ll come up with the big late stops the other side won’t.
UConn vs Illinois Prediction, Odds
UConn 83, Illinois 75
Line: UConn -9, o/u: 155.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
2024-03-29T05:20:33Z dg43tfdfdgfd